New Orleans Saints 2007 Draft Preview
Football Betting Lines
04/04/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Saints defense was held together with duct tape last season, and the New Orleans brass wasn't delusional enough to believe the team could get by under similar circumstances in 2007. Head coach Sean Payton has spoken publicly of the need for cornerback help, another linebacker will be required to go along with free agent pickup Brian Simmons, and a front-line run-stopper would be a credit to a club that struggled against rushing attacks last year. On offense, Joe Horn is now an Atlanta Falcon and the Saints need to locate a credible complement to Marques Colston at receiver. Five different players appeared at tight end for New Orleans a year ago, and it is not unthinkable that Payton and GM Mickey Loomis would look in that direction on the first day as well. The offensive line overachieved in 2006, and the franchise needs more depth in that department.
2006 Record: 10-6
First Pick: No. 27
Number of Selections: 8 (1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 7)
RECENT FIRST ROUND HISTORY: 2006 - Reggie Bush (RB, USC); 2005 - Jammal Brown (T, Oklahoma); 2004 - Will Smith (DE, Ohio State); 2003 - Johnathan Sullivan (DT, Georgia); 2002 - Donte' Stallworth (WR, Tennessee), Charles Grant (DE, Georgia); 2001 - Deuce McAllister (RB, Mississippi); 2000 - none; 1999 - Ricky Williams (RB, Texas); 1998 - Kyle Turley (OT, San Diego State); 1997 - Chris Naeole (OG, Colorado); 1996 - Alex Molden (CB, Colorado); 1995 - Mark Fields (LB, Washington State); 1994 - Joe Johnson (DE, Louisville); 1993 - Willie Roaf (OT, Louisiana Tech), Irv Smith (TE, Notre Dame); 1992 - Vaughn Dunbar (RB, Indiana); 1991 - none; 1990 - Renaldo Turnbull (DE/LB, West Virginia).
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Panthers had glaring weaknesses at linebacker and on the offensive line last year, and though both positions should be healthier in 2007, upgrades are also needed. With top tackler Chris Draft now a member of the Rams and
<< D-Backs, Rockies play rubber match at Coors
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of pitchers will make debuts with their new clubs
this afternoon when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies conclude
their three-game series at Coors Field.
Left-hander Doug Davis was acquired by Arizona in
<< Philadelphia Eagles 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Outside linebacker and defensive tackle were two of the
Eagles' biggest need areas entering the offseason, but a trade for ex-Bill
Takeo Spikes and the acquisition of former Colt Montae Reagor helped offset
those respective r
<< Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If he is still available at No. 4, there is no way the
Buccaneers can pass up Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson. However, if
another team trades up to snatch Johnson with one of the first three picks, it
won't be the
<< San Francisco 49ers 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Niners are in major need of a No. 1 receiver after
releasing Antonio Bryant, and might have to look long and hard at multi-
talented Ohio State standout Ted Ginn, Jr. There are also secondary needs,
though the signings of
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Pettitte's much anticipated return to the Bronx will have to wait as Wednesday's game between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Yankee Stadium has been postponed due to rain. No makeup da
Washington Redskins 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington places little to no value on the draft, as
evidenced by the fact that it has one pick among the first 142 and has an NFL-
low five selections overall. Which isn't to say that the Redskins are without
needs, particu
Detroit Lions 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For all the speculation about the Lions taking Brady Quinn,
Calvin Johnson, or trading down for multiple picks, it would still fly in the
face of the logic if GM Matt Millen does anything other than draft Wisconsin
left tackl
Cain hopes to get Giants on track against San Diego >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Young Matt Cain officially takes hold of the No. 2
starting slot in the San Francisco Giants rotation tonight when they host the
San Diego Padres in game two of their three-game curtain-raising series at
AT&T Park.
Cain,
New York Giants 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Giants have two gaping holes to fill. One is at left
tackle, where Luke Petitgout was released (and subsequently became a
Buccaneer), and Bob Whitfield retired. Trouble is, the only two tackles with
bona fide first-round
Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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