Football Betting

Line of Scrimmage: As the Running Back Carousel Turns...

Football Betting Lines

03/13/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Who said the running back position is undervalued in today's NFL?

You probably won't hear the likes of Ahman Green, Travis Henry, Thomas Jones, or Jamal Lewis lamenting a lack of positional appreciation as they count their millions. At some point in the recent past, all of the above players were considered to be on the verge of "washed-up" status. Now, each member of the quartet has been plucked from the free agent or trade market with a lucrative deal, and each immediately becomes a major part of their new team's plans for 2007 and beyond.

And those aren't the only big names that will be residing at different addresses heading into next season.

The Ravens swung a major deal to grab Willis McGahee, a player not so long ago thought of as the Bills' most important offensive piece.

The Raiders fitted Super Bowl hero Dominic Rhodes with a Silver and Black uniform, helping to upgrade a running game that seems to have been in constant flux since Marcus Allen departed.

Tatum Bell, who unlike McGahee and Rhodes comes off a 1,000-yard season, was exiled to Detroit in the interests of helping a nonexistent Lions running game.

In all, 18 teams - more than half the NFL - are already looking at significant running back alterations before the names Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Kenny Irons, and Michael Bush have come off the draft board.

Below we look at those clubs that will be undergoing major backfield changes in 2007, in order of the relative importance of the shifts:

RAVENS

Out: Jamal Lewis (Browns), FB Ovie Mughelli (Falcons)

In: Willis McGahee (Bills), Musa Smith (re-signed)

Impact: The Ravens' jettisoning of their all-time leading rusher was probably at least a year overdue, as Lewis never came close to an encore of his 2,066- yard season of 2003 in the subsequent three campaigns. Baltimore paid a handsome price for McGahee ($15 million in guaranteed money plus two third- round draft picks and a seventh-round pick), but in turn will be getting a more dynamic player with far fewer miles on the odometer than Lewis. The re- signing of Smith is more significant than it might seem, as the oft-injured former third-round pick is being pegged for a bigger role. Mughelli was a key contributor last season, but the Ravens saw no reason to break the bank in order to keep him in the fold.

JETS

Out: Kevan Barlow (released), Derrick Blaylock (released), B.J. Askew (Buccaneers)

In: Thomas Jones (Bears), FB Darian Barnes (Dolphins)

Impact: The Jets made a decisive move to stop their revolving backfield door by acquiring Jones and the No. 63 overall draft pick in exchange for the No. 37 selection in next month's draft. Jones will be 29 by the start of the season, but he's carried the ball 300 times in a year just once and projects as an every-down back for at least the next couple of years. Barnes is a pure blocking fullback who will be with his fourth team in five seasons, but his presence will be welcome on a team with one of the youngest offensive lines in the NFL.

BEARS

Out: Thomas Jones (Jets)

In: None

Impact: Few expected it to take three years, but the Bears finally made a move to establish 2005 No. 4 pick Cedric Benson as their every-down ball carrier. Benson has battled injury problems and a negative stigma about his attitude in his first two seasons in the NFL, but has shown flashes of greatness when given the opportunity to touch the football. Jones' departure leaves special teams ace Adrian Peterson (622 yards in five NFL seasons) as the No. 2 running back, and Chicago is likely to target a third-down-back type in the middle rounds of the April draft.

BILLS

Out: Willis McGahee (Ravens)

In: Anthony Thomas (re-signed)

Impact: McGahee's fall from grace in Buffalo was precipitous, as his declining performance (he fell short of the 1,000-yard mark last season) and incendiary public comments (he suggested in a Penthouse Magazine article that the team should move to Toronto) relegated his No. 21 jersey to the discount rack. Many Bills fans were glad to see him go, but given the one-dimensional, journeyman status of 2006 backup Thomas, many are looking for the team to make another move to shore up the backfield. After an unsuccessful run at Corey Dillon, Buffalo could turn to a second-tier free agent like Chris Brown or cast their lot in the draft.

BROWNS

Out: Reuben Droughns (Giants)

In: Jamal Lewis (Ravens)

Impact: The Browns were widely expected to use the third overall pick in the April draft on Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson, but the acquisition of Lewis places that prospect in some doubt. If Cleveland general manager Phil Savage and head coach Romeo Crennel are being realistic, however, they'll admit that Lewis is something less than a 20-carry-per-game player at this stage of his career and target another back to take some of the weight off his shoulders. Whether that means keeping their sights set on Peterson or bolstering the position with a later draft pick (Auburn's Kenny Irons and Louisville's Michael Bush could be available with the Browns' No. 35 overall pick) remains to be seen.

TEXANS

Out: None

In: Ahman Green (Packers)

Impact: The Texans showed their desperation for backfield help when they committed $23 million over six years (including $6 million guaranteed) to Green, who turned 30 in February, already has six seasons of 250 carries or more on his resume', and is just two years removed from a major quadriceps injury that sidelined him for 11 games. The franchise has apparently given up on the former Domanick Davis (now known as Domanick Williams), who is still bothered with knee problems, and part-time 2006 starter Ron Dayne remains unsigned, meaning Wali Lundy and Samkon Gado are currently the best options to back Green. Look for Houston to make one more significant backfield addition before all is said and done.

PACKERS

Out: Ahman Green (Texans), FB William Henderson (released)

In: None

Impact: With Green gone after seven seasons, the Packers are looking for the next link in a backfield chain that also included extended contributions from the likes of Dorsey Levens and Edgar Bennett. It seems unlikely that holdovers Vernand Morency and/or Noah Herron will be counted on to handle the workload in 2007, but targeting a backfield starter via the draft appears to be a more viable option than does free agency at this point. Henderson spent 12 productive seasons in Green Bay, but just turned 36 and had already been deemed expendable when Brandon Miree took his starting job last year.

GIANTS

Out: Tiki Barber (retired)

In: Reuben Droughns (Browns)

Impact: Giants fans are not exactly doing cartwheels over the acquisition of Droughns, a converted fullback who is cut from the same one-cut, straight- ahead cloth as projected starter Brandon Jacobs and who more or less turned back into a pumpkin last year in Cleveland. The G-Men are still in need of a scat-back, third-down type who can help make up for Barber's huge contribution in the passing game. If the first day of the draft ends and that player is still not in the Giants' fold, expect there to be some major grumbling from team supporters.

BRONCOS

Out: Tatum Bell (Lions)

In: Travis Henry (Titans), FB Paul Smith (Rams)

Impact: The Broncos get rid of another 1,000-yard back, and the world yawns. The traded Bell joins Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, Clinton Portis, and Olandis Gary on the list of valued Denver backfield starters-turned-scrap heap material. And although Denver sunk a guaranteed $12 million into the 28-year- old Henry, a three-time 1,000-yard rusher, don't be surprised to see him wearing another uniform in 2008 as well. The team still plans on using second- year-pro Mike Bell (677 yards, 8 TD in '06) to complement Henry in '07. The fullback Smith, who is with his fourth team in six years, is not a lock to make the 2007 roster.

TITANS

Out: Travis Henry (Broncos)

In: None

Impact: The Titans decided to say goodbye to Henry, rather than parting with an $8.3 million roster bonus for a player who is closing in on 30 years old and has been saddled with character issues in recent seasons. Tennessee is also likely to lose former starter Chris Brown to free agency, though Brown was still on the open market as of Tuesday afternoon. That leaves second-year- pro LenDale White (244 rushing yards as a rookie), who has yet to prove that he can be a credible NFL running back, atop the depth chart. It seems unlikely that Tennessee will spend for a Corey Dillon if they were unwilling to pay Henry, meaning White could be battling a rookie for the No. 1 running back job heading into 2007.

LIONS

Out: FB Cory Schlesinger (Dolphins)

In: Tatum Bell (Broncos), T.J. Duckett (Redskins), Aveion Cason (re-signed)

Impact: Considering the fact that the Lions set an NFL record for fewest carries in a season (304) last year, the offseason emphasis on running back help was a bit of a head-scratcher. Kevin Jones could miss the beginning of the season with a foot problem, meaning Bell will have little competition for the starting backfield job. Duckett, who scarcely touched the ball with Washington last year, will have to prove that he can still be an effective pro. Cason will battle the likes of Shawn Bryson and second-year-pro Brian Calhoun for a roster spot. Schlesinger, who was a part of the Lions' roster for 12 years, did not fit in with Mike Martz's offensive system and thus was deemed expendable.

RAIDERS

Out: None

In: Dominic Rhodes (Colts), FB Justin Griffith (Falcons)

Impact: Rhodes parlayed a strong postseason in which he amassed an NFL-best 306 yards into a two-year, $7.5 million contract with offense-starved Oakland. Rhodes will likely battle LaMont Jordan for the starting job, after Jordan recently restructured his contract, though there remains the possibility that Jordan will be dangled in a trade. The addition of Griffith, a strong blocker and pass-catcher for four years in Atlanta, is underrated. Griffith's presence could spell the end of the line for 34-year-old Zack Crockett, who has been a jack-of-all-trades for Oakland for the past eight seasons.

COLTS

Out: Dominic Rhodes (Raiders)

In: None

Impact: Rhodes' departure shouldn't make much of a ripple in Indianapolis, since second-year-pro Joseph Addai looks primed to be a 300-plus carry back for the foreseeable future. Addai's backup next season figures to be a second- tier free agent, a mid-round 2007 draft pick, or veteran Colts backup James Mungro, who is set to return after missing all of 2006 with a knee injury.

PATRIOTS

Out: Corey Dillon (released)

In: Sammy Morris (Dolphins)

Impact: Morris doesn't have the same resume' or name cachet as the recently released Dillon, but the younger, more versatile Morris should be able to provide a reasonable facsimile of Dillon's skills as an inside runner and occasional pass-catcher. Morris can also play fullback, which undoubtedly increased his allure to New England. Still, there can be little question that Dillon's absence will mean a greater role for the oft-dazzling Laurence Maroney in 2007 and beyond. It also appears that a place on the roster remains for 30-year-old Kevin Faulk, who has been a Patriot longer than Tom Brady or Bill Belichick.

FALCONS

Out: FB Justin Griffith (Raiders)

In: FB Ovie Mughelli (Ravens)

Impact: Griffith was an effective and popular player in four years with Atlanta, but was determined to be ill-suited for more significant responsibilities as a blocker in new head coach Bobby Petrino's scheme. Enter the 255-pound Mughelli, who the Falcons made the highest-paid fullback in NFL history with a six-year, $18 million deal. With just 38 NFL starts under his belt, the 26-year-old Mughelli will have much to prove in terms of his value to the team.

DOLPHINS

Out: Sammy Morris (Patriots), Travis Minor (Rams), FB Darian Barnes (Jets)

In: FB Cory Schlesinger (Lions)

Impact: Morris and Minor will probably be best remembered for being forced into the spotlight when Ricky Williams bailed on the Dolphins prior to the disastrous 4-12 season of 2004. Both had their moments in Miami, but neither will be especially missed. Schlesinger is seen as an upgrade over the less versatile Barnes, but the ex-Lion will be 35 when the season begins and has some injuries in his recent past. Miami is still in need of some insurance for the injury-prone Ronnie Brown in the starting backfield, and (assuming the wholly unreliable Williams is not an option), a mid-round draft 2007 pick is not out of the question in that regard. Jesse Chatman, who played under new head coach Cam Cameron while both were with the Chargers, will also be in the mix.

REDSKINS

Out: T.J. Duckett (Lions)

In: None

Impact: After coming over in a training camp trade from Atlanta, Duckett carried just 38 times in his only year in Washington. With Clinton Portis set to return from an injury-marred 2006 and Ladell Betts fresh off his first-ever 1,000-yard season, the significance of Duckett's loss will be minimal.

RAMS

Out: FB Paul Smith (Broncos)

In: Travis Minor (Dolphins)

Impact: Smith had fallen behind younger fullback Madison Hedgecock on the depth chart at fullback, and was subject to being cut during training camp had he opted to return to the Rams. Minor is no cinch to make the St. Louis roster other, since Steven Jackson is in his prime, Marshall Faulk appears set to return after a one-year hiatus, and either Stephen Davis or Tony Fisher could return after testing the free agent market. Minor will be closely monitoring both the status of Davis and Fisher and the health of Faulk over the coming weeks and months.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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FOOTBALL BETTING LINES

NFL Football Sports Betting

Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.

New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.

His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.

HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.

The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.

RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.

First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.

The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.

These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.

New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.

You can find these lines and all of the NFL betting lines , so be sure to login and get your wagers down before kickoff!

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines .
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